September slow down

September Sales On Pace For Record Lows

Steve Saretsky -

Early Numbers Show Vancouver Sales Hit 10 Year Low

The much requested September numbers are here and they’re not pretty.

Just over a week ago I highlighted how Detached Housing Market Takes Heavy Blow in August which also begged the question is the Condo/Townhouse market cooling? Both reports emphasized a critical reason for both buyers and sellers to keep a close eye on September.

September is historically known as a busy month for Vancouver real estate. Hence why I said in my CBC interview that all eyes should be on September before jumping to any assumptions on the impact of the foreign buyers tax. Many pundits were quoted as saying “Too early to tell the impact after one month.”

So here we are, almost 2 weeks into September. Is it still too early to judge? Perhaps. Interpret at your own discretion.

Here are the processed sales from the Real Estate Board. These numbers are firm and will not change. Below I have compared processed sales from September 01-11 over the last ten years.

September Detached Sales

[table id=4 /]

The table shows a significant drop in sales this September compared to 2015. Vancouver West down 51%, Vancouver East -80%, Richmond -67%, Burnaby -69%.

If we compare historically, dating back from 2006-2015, detached sales have dropped 47% in Vancouver West, 74% Vancouver East, 52% in Richmond, and 61% in Burnaby.

[table id=5 /]

September Attached Sales

A steep drop for condo/townhouse sales thus far in September. Comparing to 2015, Vancouver West down 42%, Vancouver East down 67%, Richmond down 48%, Burnaby down 49%.

Comparing over the last 10 years, sales are way below average. Attached sales have dropped 30% in Vancouver West, 42% in Vancouver East, 38% in Richmond, 13% in Burnaby.

As I mentioned before, these numbers are from the Real Estate Boards Processed sales. They are concrete and will not change.  Although this is a small sample size I do not expect these numbers to jump over the coming weeks.

Impossible to predict how the market will play out, but these are some ugly numbers. We are hitting 10 year lows for Detached in Vancouver and would be 10 year lows for condos/townhouses in Vancouver West had it not been for a slow 2012.

Yet i’m still seeing multiple offers on some properties in these areas. A bit of head scratcher…

Could this possibly be attributed to a slow August from the shock of the tax? Inventory levels remain relatively unchanged. So yes, until we see a flood of new inventory we may not see prices change drastically. Time will tell.

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