Detached Sales 46% Below 10 Year Average- Steve Saretsky

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2015
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Detached Sales 46% Below 10 Year Average

Steve Saretsky -

October 15, 2016

Detached Home Sales Far From Historical Averages

I’ve been saying for quite some time that detached sales are well below historical averages. In September Detached Market Report I reported that East Vancouver had the fewest sales that September than any other September over the past 10 years.

However, the Real Estate Board’s release went on to say that sales were returning to more normal historical levels. I’m almost certain it’s because they combined detached and attached sales. This can be quite misleading since we all know they are two very different markets.

Here’s what I found in the single family market. Using the sold date not the processed date (I explained the difference in this short video) I was able to determine that September detached sales were 47% below the 10 year average. Areas covered by this study include all detached homes in REBGV (Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.)

Historical Detached Sales Average (2005-2015)

January- 1076
February- 1447
March- 1568
April- 1605
May- 1643
June- 1472
July- 1278
August- 1156
September- 1171

2016 Detached Sales

January- 1220
February- 1963
March- 2024
April- 2043
May- 1827
June- 1451
July- 940
August- 659
September- 625

REBGV detached sales history — September 2016 sales 47% below 10 year average.

Here’s the quick take away: July 2016 sales were 26% below the 10 year average , August 43% below, and September was 47% below the 10 year average (2005-2015).

So clearly we are in very unfamiliar territory. Detached sales have plunged well below normal levels. I think what’s interesting is July 2016 sales were 26% below normal levels. The foreign buyers tax was introduced July 25 and implemented on August 02. This begs the question how much of the recent sales declines are a direct result of the 15% tax?

How much longer will this historically slow trend continue? Early data shows October Sales Off to Slow Start. It’s also why I think if you’ve been contemplating selling it’s likely Time to Cash Out Vancouver Real Estate Profits.

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