Chart of new listings in Greater Vancouver

Homeowners Aren’t Moving New Listings Remain Weak

Steve Saretsky -

Homeowners are staying put, and opting not to move. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal notes homeowners in the United States are remaining in their homes typically 13 years, five years longer than they did in 2010, according to a new analysis by real-estate brokerage Redfin. When owners don’t trade up to a larger home for a growing family or downsize when children leave, it plugs up the market for buyers coming behind them.

More homeowners staying put has helped cause housing inventory to dwindle to its lowest level in decades, which has also helped push up prices on homes for sale. Adjusted for population, the inventory of homes for sale is now near the lowest level in 37 years of record-keeping, according to housing-data firm CoreLogic Inc.

Homes for sale per 1000 US households.

Homeowners are staying longer in every one of the 55 metros that Redfin studied. Why? It seems there’s no definitive answer. Some suggest it has to do with the high costs when selling, or the lack of affordability when trying to upsize. Something is broken and nobody seems to know why.

That takes us to Canada, where a similar phenomenon appears to be playing out here. New listings remain stubbornly low in Vancouver & Toronto. Here’s a chart of new listings per 1000 people.

via @Xelan_gta

And here’s a chart of the 12 month average of new listings in Greater Vancouver across all property types. Basically new listings are falling which is causing inventory to drop.

Chart of new listings in Greater Vancouver
All property types, 12 month average.

Perhaps you need a trigger to force people to sell, like a recession. Or perhaps this is a secular shift in behaviour? Whatever it is, it’s not helping housing affordability.

Join the Monday Newsletter

Every Monday morning you'll receive a short and entertaining round-up of news on the Vancouver & Canadian Real Estate markets.

"*" indicates required fields

The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! We got a string of new data this past week confirming inflation in consumer goods, and housing are proving to be more than transitory. Canada’s consumer price index continued to drift higher with prices hitting an 18 year high, up 4.7% from last October. The recent floods in BC...

Steve Saretsky -

The calls for impending interest rate hikes continues. CIBC’s chief economist, Benjamin Tal, was out recently suggesting the Bank of Canada could hike its benchmark interest rate at least six times beginning in early 2022. “I think there is a risk of getting into the market at today’s rates,” noted Tal....

Steve Saretsky -

The BC Government announced it is looking at several cooling measures for the housing market in 2022. They have highlighted two measures. The first is an end to the blind bidding process, and the other is a mandatory “cooling off period” which will allow any buyer a 7 day recession...

Steve Saretsky -

The Bank of Canada continues to slowly drain liquidity after flooding the system with a firehose of cash during the pandemic. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem announced the end of Canada’s QE program (also known as money printing). Furthermore, in Macklems words, “We expect to begin increasing our policy...

Steve Saretsky -

Consumer price inflation ripped higher in September, surging 4.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace of price increases in 18 years. Let’s discuss this further. We have an inflation problem and the Bank of Canada remains of the view that inflation will be transitory. Although they really can’t say otherwise, for if...

Get the Saretsky Report to your email every month

The Saretsky Report. December 2022