The Saretsky Report. February 2021

Steve Saretsky -

Back in October 2020, I tweeted “Unpopular view, but the next move for Canadian housing could be an absolute face ripping rally higher.” To be honest, I was hoping I would be wrong but the data doesn’t lie. The bearish thesis on Canadian housing was always about bank lending. Everyone assumed banks would tighten credit due to the ongoing economic destruction and mounting job losses. However, it turned out to be the opposite. Aided by Government policies, banks ramped credit creation into overdrive, funneling massive amounts of new credit into the housing sector. The bulk of new credit that banks created was done by issuing new mortgage loans. The banks stoked a credit boom to inflate prices and stave off a downturn in the housing market and the economy. It really is that simple.

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The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

As we expected and discussed in last months report, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps in October. Markets were pricing in a 75bps rate hike but the Bank of Canada failed to deliver, citing growing concerns around financial stability. It’s the first time in awhile they have...

Steve Saretsky -

It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our...

Steve Saretsky -

There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales...

Steve Saretsky -

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large...

Steve Saretsky -

I’m a bit later than usual in writing this report and it’s probably for the best. As of this writing on July 13th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates a monstrous 100bps, the single largest increase since 1998. This will have significant ramifications for the housing market, not just...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022