Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning!

We’ve talked a lot about immigration. Remember, the Feds targeted 430,000 permanent residents in 2022 and hit those with ease. Those targets have been set even higher moving forward. However, the real issue here is these figures do not include non-permanent residents. It seems strange to omit these people considering the fact that once you factor them into the calculations our population actually ballooned by a million people in 2022.

This is either incompetence or a total blind spot at the federal level. It’s something I discussed this past week on our podcast with former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.

It gets more complicated when you consider its actually the responsibility of provincial and municipal governments to approve new housing supply. Suffice to say getting three large bureaucratic governments on the same page is like running a marathon with a pebble in your shoe.

If you manage to limbo through all the red tape, congrats. Your next challenge is eating a doubling in financing costs, volatile and rising construction costs, and a never ending increase in development charges. In fact, CMHC just pumped their development fees by 100-200% on their rental construction financing program.

It’s no wonder housing starts are going down for the dirtnap. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in March came in at 213K units, the lowest level since the depths of the pandemic.


I have a funny feeling we’ll still be talking about a housing crisis five years from now.

In other news, the resale market has caught fire, a theme we’ve been talking about for a little bit now. I suppose a twenty year low in new listings will do that. If you’re planning on attending an open house anytime soon make sure you bring an old pair of shoes because you’ll probably lose them in the pile at the door.

I don’t know why things have changed so dramatically in just a couple of months, but they have, and it’s not just in Vancouver. My good friend Jordon Scrinko runs a massive pre-sale business in the GTA. I promise you he’s not just pumping his bags. The investors are back.


Maybe Tiff needs to raise rates again. Who knows, but sentiment has definitely shifted. Some things are hard to explain, like when people were losing their jobs at the onset of the pandemic but also bidding up housing. It’s like we’ve come full circle again.

Join the Monday Newsletter

Every Monday morning you'll receive a short and entertaining round-up of news on the Vancouver & Canadian Real Estate markets.

"*" indicates required fields

The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! At the beginning of the year I was part of a real estate pannel with REW on the state of the Vancouver housing market. On stage, in front of a live audience, the moderator asked me for my forecast for 2023. I promplty noted at the time that “we’re...

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! The housing crisis in this country gets a lot of attention, as it should. Fixing it, however, is proving to be rather difficult. Over the past several years we have attempted to beat demand over the head with a blunt instrument. The list of policy measures include,...

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! Headline inflation ripped higher than expected this week, jumping back up to 4% for the month of August. It turns out Chrystia Freeland’s premature victory lap marked the bottom back in June. There’s a lesson here in base effects, you’d think her economics team would have tapped...

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! Over the past several months we’ve been highlighting the marked slowdown in residential building permits, a leading indicator of future supply. This is what happens when the cost of capital doubles, and in some cases, triples. This is a disaster in the making for a federal government...

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines once again, appeasing premiers in BC & Ontario who publicly pleaded with the BoC last week. It’s no secret these two provinces have the most to lose, their coffers largely built on a highly levered housing market, but we’ll...

Get the Saretsky Report to your email every month

The Saretsky Report. December 2022