{"id":11128,"date":"2023-06-26T06:18:33","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T13:18:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.stevesaretsky.com\/?p=11128"},"modified":"2023-06-26T06:18:47","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T13:18:47","slug":"there-will-be-blood","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.stevesaretsky.com\/2023\/06\/news\/there-will-be-blood\/","title":{"rendered":"There Will be Blood"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Happy Monday Morning!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Perhaps one of the most fascinating stories of the year has been the resiliency in the nations housing market. Prices have bounced sharply since the depths of the 2022 bear market, surprising even the housing bulls. This is no bueno for the Bank of Canada who is desperately trying to reign in inflation after unleashing a firehose of cheap liquidity the past few years. After shaking markets with a surprise 25bps \u201cunpause\u201d in June, it looks like they\u2019ll be back for more blood come July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In their recent publication surrounding their policy deliberations, their decision to raise rates in June was partly attributed to \u201cHousing resale prices, which feed into the CPI with a 1-month lag, had increased for 3 consecutive months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rising house prices will not be tolerated, at least in the near term. That\u2019s a difficult concept to swallow for most Canadians, considering the nearly 30 year bull market most homeowners have enjoyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s almost a certainty the Bank of Canada is going to be too late to ease policy, just like they were too late to tighten policy. Remember the first rate hike came one month after the housing bull market had peaked. No reason to expect anything different this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Housing has been propped up by a 20 year low in new listings for nearly six months. This isn\u2019t sustainable, and neither are 6% mortgage rates. Something has to give, and it will soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only a third of borrowers have seen a payment increase but it\u2019s already starting to bite. Per research from good friend Ben Rabidoux<\/a>, borrowers who took 2 year terms from a B lender ( Home Capital Group, Equitable Group) and are renewing today at approximately 500bps higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n