old person wont' sell house

Pent-Up Supply

Steve Saretsky -

The often debated Vancouver real estate market continues to mystify the masses. A flurry of confusing stats and mixed signals are bombarding Vancouverites.

Perhaps most evident in a report released from Royal Lepage leader Phil Soper today.

The report states that in the past month, sales in the Vancouver area have leapt forward by close to 50 per cent on a month-over-month basis,  better than the seasonal average.

“In the coming weeks, it is possible that six months of pent-up demand will be unleashed on the market, sending prices sharply upward again.” Quipped Lepage’s Soper.

However, the report failed to mention sales are down 31% year over year across all segments for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

In fact, one could argue it’s more likely to see six months of pent-up supply, not demand.

New listings have plunged by 24% year over year. Through the first three months of 2017 new listings are 19% below the 10 year average. Sellers appear reluctant to sell, perhaps due to a belief that their home will be worth more next year. Or simply an unwillingness to sell and be on the other side of the negotiating table, competing amongst a mob of buyers for the leftover scraps.

With sales hitting all time record highs just a year ago and pulling years of demand forward coupled with an Avalanche of new supply under construction it’s hard to fathom prices shooting sharply upwards again.

However, one can never rule out the strength of the Vancouver market and Soper is accurate that parts of the market appear to be heating up. I spoke about it today with CKNW’s Simi Sara. Listen HERE.


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The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! We got a string of new data this past week confirming inflation in consumer goods, and housing are proving to be more than transitory. Canada’s consumer price index continued to drift higher with prices hitting an 18 year high, up 4.7% from last October. The recent floods in BC...

Steve Saretsky -

The calls for impending interest rate hikes continues. CIBC’s chief economist, Benjamin Tal, was out recently suggesting the Bank of Canada could hike its benchmark interest rate at least six times beginning in early 2022. “I think there is a risk of getting into the market at today’s rates,” noted Tal....

Steve Saretsky -

The BC Government announced it is looking at several cooling measures for the housing market in 2022. They have highlighted two measures. The first is an end to the blind bidding process, and the other is a mandatory “cooling off period” which will allow any buyer a 7 day recession...

Steve Saretsky -

The Bank of Canada continues to slowly drain liquidity after flooding the system with a firehose of cash during the pandemic. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem announced the end of Canada’s QE program (also known as money printing). Furthermore, in Macklems words, “We expect to begin increasing our policy...

Steve Saretsky -

Consumer price inflation ripped higher in September, surging 4.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace of price increases in 18 years. Let’s discuss this further. We have an inflation problem and the Bank of Canada remains of the view that inflation will be transitory. Although they really can’t say otherwise, for if...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022