The Saretsky Report. March 2019

Steve Saretsky -

As expected, the slow grind in the Vancouver housing market continued in March. As we continue to stress on a monthly basis, the direction of housing markets are largely determined by the supply and availability of credit and human sentiment, thus once those two factors turn negative they can be very challenging to reverse. This is very different than the stock market where prices and the overall direction of the market can change significantly on a month to month basis. Yet we continue to hear suggestions that home sales will suddenly bounce back any month now. With home sales falling 30% from last March, and marking their lowest total for the month of March in 33 years, sales will continue to stumble along in the months ahead. Unsurprisingly, in the face of a weakening Canadian economy and sluggish housing market, the Bank of Canada has taken a dovish pivot, this has sent longer duration bond yields plummeting, inverting a large portion of the yield curve and pushing mortgage rates lower, actually helping to ease affordability as prices fall. We will discuss the impacts of this in the March report.

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The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

As we expected and discussed in last months report, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps in October. Markets were pricing in a 75bps rate hike but the Bank of Canada failed to deliver, citing growing concerns around financial stability. It’s the first time in awhile they have...

Steve Saretsky -

It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our...

Steve Saretsky -

There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales...

Steve Saretsky -

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large...

Steve Saretsky -

I’m a bit later than usual in writing this report and it’s probably for the best. As of this writing on July 13th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates a monstrous 100bps, the single largest increase since 1998. This will have significant ramifications for the housing market, not just...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022