The Saretsky Report. August 2019

Steve Saretsky -

Greater Vancouver home sales bounced again in August, increasing 16% year-overyear. This was the second consecutive month home sales had increased on a yearover-year basis. However, it is important to contextualize the movements before jumping to conclusions and getting too far ahead of ourselves. Without a doubt sales activity has increased, which shouldn’t be overly surprising considering we endured a twenty year low in purchasing activity through the first half of this year. It appears some of the demand that was cautiously sitting on the sidelines is finally pulling the trigger, thanks to lower prices and much lower mortgage rates. Today we are seeing 5 year fixed uninsured mortgages as low as 2.69% with further indications that those should sink lower as the 5 year Government of Canada bond yields continues to tumble. Despite the massively inverted Canadian yield curve, banks are still eager to lend, many of whom are actively competing for new borrowers despite shrinking margins. As a result, the housing market appears much stronger, sales activity is picking up, banks are lending and prices appear to have stabilized. However, resounding calls echoing that the bottom is in, are likely premature. Let us dive in further.

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The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

As we expected and discussed in last months report, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps in October. Markets were pricing in a 75bps rate hike but the Bank of Canada failed to deliver, citing growing concerns around financial stability. It’s the first time in awhile they have...

Steve Saretsky -

It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our...

Steve Saretsky -

There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales...

Steve Saretsky -

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large...

Steve Saretsky -

I’m a bit later than usual in writing this report and it’s probably for the best. As of this writing on July 13th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates a monstrous 100bps, the single largest increase since 1998. This will have significant ramifications for the housing market, not just...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022