The Saretsky Report. October 2019

Steve Saretsky -

Identical to September, the Greater Vancouver housing market notched a 46% year-over-year increase in sales activity for the month of October. This markets four consecutive increases in sales volumes on an annualized basis. On the surface, the numbers look good and most would conclude the recovery is on and it’s onwards and upwards from here. However, the fundamentals behind those numbers suggest cautious optimism is warranted. We still have not solved affordability issues, and given the high levels of household indebtedness it remains uncertain how locals will be able to drive prices much higher, barring an easing in credit standards or another inflow of foreign capital. Rather, the recent uptick in housing activity appears more attributable to a number of local buyers stepping off the sidelines thanks in part to lower mortgage rates and home prices. The recent increase in sales has put a stop to rising inventory levels and thus, has also stemmed prices from falling further. We went from record low sales earlier this year to October sales finishing 10% above the ten year average. In other words, there’s still a lot of volatility and uncertainty in the market today. Let’s dive in.

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The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

As we expected and discussed in last months report, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps in October. Markets were pricing in a 75bps rate hike but the Bank of Canada failed to deliver, citing growing concerns around financial stability. It’s the first time in awhile they have...

Steve Saretsky -

It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our...

Steve Saretsky -

There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales...

Steve Saretsky -

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large...

Steve Saretsky -

I’m a bit later than usual in writing this report and it’s probably for the best. As of this writing on July 13th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates a monstrous 100bps, the single largest increase since 1998. This will have significant ramifications for the housing market, not just...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022