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Luxury Housing Markets Slumping Globally

Steve Saretsky -

Per Bloomberg, wealthy homebuyers are finding global cities less welcoming and even hostile towards their cash. This is a secular shift as the wealth inequality created through a decade of easy money has enhanced social frictions and birthed the rise of populist governments. As Ray Dalio notes in his recent post, “The world has gone mad and the system is broken.”

Luxury property prices in 45 global cities rose an average of just 1.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest annual gain since the end of 2009, according to a report from Knight Frank. They fell 4.4% in New York, 3.9% in London and 10% in Vancouver.

“The safe havens are becoming less certain,” said Dan Conn, chief executive officer of Christie’s International Real Estate. “It’s becoming much more challenging in the hubs to find a high quality place to deploy capital.”

Indeed, London and New York, among other cities, have recently passed taxes aimed at rich buyers. Same thing here in Vancouver with foreign buyer taxes, and increased property taxes on luxury homes. As a result, capital has fled luxury markets in these cities prompting the Knight Frank luxury home price index to slip to decade-lows.

The article adds, “Even as the flow of investment has slowed, many developers are delivering projects started when the supply of rich buyers seemed to go on forever. Now there’s a glut of luxury properties and — as anger mounts over wealth inequality — affordable units are in increasingly short supply.”

Perhaps no more evident than here in Vancouver. The current recovery in the Vancouver housing market is being driven in the affordable segments of the market, ie anything under $1M. As of the end of October there was just 3 months of inventory for homes priced below $1M in Greater Vancouver. Meanwhile, there is a glut of luxury homes sitting idle on the market, with 20 months of inventory for sale.

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The Canadian Economy

Steve Saretsky -

Happy Monday Morning! We got a string of new data this past week confirming inflation in consumer goods, and housing are proving to be more than transitory. Canada’s consumer price index continued to drift higher with prices hitting an 18 year high, up 4.7% from last October. The recent floods in BC...

Steve Saretsky -

The calls for impending interest rate hikes continues. CIBC’s chief economist, Benjamin Tal, was out recently suggesting the Bank of Canada could hike its benchmark interest rate at least six times beginning in early 2022. “I think there is a risk of getting into the market at today’s rates,” noted Tal....

Steve Saretsky -

The BC Government announced it is looking at several cooling measures for the housing market in 2022. They have highlighted two measures. The first is an end to the blind bidding process, and the other is a mandatory “cooling off period” which will allow any buyer a 7 day recession...

Steve Saretsky -

The Bank of Canada continues to slowly drain liquidity after flooding the system with a firehose of cash during the pandemic. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem announced the end of Canada’s QE program (also known as money printing). Furthermore, in Macklems words, “We expect to begin increasing our policy...

Steve Saretsky -

Consumer price inflation ripped higher in September, surging 4.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace of price increases in 18 years. Let’s discuss this further. We have an inflation problem and the Bank of Canada remains of the view that inflation will be transitory. Although they really can’t say otherwise, for if...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022